A Monte Carlo simulation engine calibrated to the CSIS "First Battle of the Next War" (2023) wargame findings. Runs thousands of iterations to model the probability space of a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan — producing statistical distributions, not single outcomes.
HOW TO USE
1. Configure force availability on the left — CSGs, SSNs, F-16V readiness, and weapons pre-staging.
2. Set policy levers — Japan basing access is the dominant variable. Japan ON with 1 CSG outperforms Japan OFF with 2 CSGs by ~63 percentage points.
3. Adjust assumptions via sliders — air combat kill rates, SSN torpedo effectiveness, PLAN intercept capabilities.
4. Click ▶ RUN SIMULATION — engine runs 500 iterations in background. Results appear here.
KEY FINDING
Japan basing access is the single most important policy variable.
CSIS found that without Japan-based air and logistics, the US cannot generate sufficient sortie rates to defeat the amphibious fleet before it reaches Taiwan's beaches. This engine reproduces that finding quantitatively — Japan ON ~73-80% survival, RESTRICTED ~35-45%, OFF ~12-20%.
NUCLEAR SHADOW
The engine models nuclear escalation pressure — tracking how conventional military actions create conditions that increase the probability of nuclear weapons use. CSIS 2024 nuclear wargame found RESTRICTED scenarios carry the highest escalation risk — ambiguity about Japan's role creates miscalculation space.
CALIBRATION
Engine outputs calibrated to CSIS 2023 target bands across 500-run validation batches. Japan ON: 73-80% survival. Japan RESTRICTED: 35-45%. Japan OFF: 12-20%. Sensitivity analysis via Pearson correlation coefficient identifies which assumptions have the largest impact on outcomes.
CREDITS
Built byChris Nordahl— Lancaster, CA
Data sourceCSIS "First Battle of the Next War" (2023)
Nuclear modelCSIS "Confronting Armageddon" (2024)
DevelopmentAI-assisted (Claude, Anthropic)
EngineSingle-file HTML/JS — no dependencies
LATTICERUNNER is an independent project. Not affiliated with Anduril Industries, CSIS, or the US Department of Defense.
ANALYTICAL RESULTS
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SURVIVAL RATE
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MEAN DAYS
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VLS DEPLETED
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AVG MARKET
FORCE EXPENDITURE (mean per run)
SUSTAINABILITY SCORECARD
Civilian Displacement (Taipei metro est.)--
TSMC / Semiconductor Supply Risk--
Global GDP Impact (mean estimate)--
US Naval Sustainability (VLS remaining)--
Air Superiority Retained (% of runs)--
PLAN Amphibious Fleet Neutralized--
DAYS SURVIVED DISTRIBUTION
BREACH CORRIDORS (% of runs)
AIR WAR LEDGER (mean per run)
ECONOMY OF FORCE (mean per run)
NAVAL / SUBMARINE / MARKET
ANALYTICAL NARRATIVE — AUTO-GENERATED FROM BATCH DATA